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02-Apr-2010
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Does anyone have any thoughts (or knowledge), of the numbers of australian pre decimal coins that are still available for collectors. I have read some reports that the Mint estimated that they that only 15% of all pre decimal coins were unaccounted for when the change over ocurred in 1966. I would also assume that examples like early 1911 to 1920 pennies (and more specifically the smaller threepence) would also suffer from natural attitrition before the change over occurred. If a coin has a normal lifespan of 30 to 40 years (2.5 to 3% attitrition rate a year) , then would it be safe to assume that by the time the changeover occurred in 1966, then at 55 years of age, the 1911 would have been virtually non existant in circulation.
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02-Apr-2010
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may be you should ask how many natural uncleaned whizzed or doctored predecimal coins are out there , the percentage of which would be microscopic
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02-Apr-2010
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Well, in all honesty, i didnt ask that question, because what ever the answer, it would have been answer to a question that i didnt ask. I suppose if you wanted to know the answer, then you could ask the question. But in saying that, I would rather have a cleaned and whizzed 1930 penny, than a pristine uncirculated 1964 penny. The best coin in the world is utterly useless to me, if i dont have one.
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03-Apr-2010
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Walter Eigner Numismatics
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Depends on the coin, copper tends to have a higher lifetime as it wears slower and wasn't met with the debasement in 1945 which saw vast quantities of silver coins exported and melted as the silver value exceeded the face value. By the introduction of decimal currency, most silver in circulation was post-1946 for that reason. Half Sovereigns have a survival rate of about 1-2%. Sovereigns are much higher, an average of 15% would be a fair estimate for copper (earlier years less for obvious reasons), 10-15% for silver would be a fair estimate too though keep in mind that our silver coinage is still being melted so expect this figure to drop over time.
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04-Apr-2010
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Thanks Admin, I have an interest in George V australian coins pennies, threepence, sixpence, shillings and Florins from 1910 to 1936. Whilst we all hear of the prices relating to 1930 pennies (even lower grade ones), I assume the number of 1930 pennies wont get less due to the care and security current owners will now pace upon them. However when one looks at the small number in mintage terms of coins from 1910 to 1936, the fact that you can still sometimes purchase silver coins below silver content value (which may lead to melting), and as some of these coins are getting to be 100 years old (it then only takes a one percent attrition rate per year to become extinct), then I was wondering if it was time to ramp up the collection of these coins, for possible future capital gains.
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04-Apr-2010
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Walter Eigner Numismatics
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It's a good idea in theory, but remember the coins that are being melted are the common dates, just 15 years ago, about the time I started collecting, all florins but the 1932 and the Melbourne Centenary could be found in bullion piles and thus could be expected to be melted. As the collector market grows, demand for these coins grows starting with the scarce dates (as if everyone wanted date sets, scarce dates fall short first), and the price goes up. Consequently they're pulled out of bullion piles and no longer at risk of being melted.
Had you searched for 1914-H and 1915 florins from bullion piles 15 years ago and hoarded them, they'd be worth 15x what you paid, just shy of 20% pa compounded, which is a decent return, but remember there was some work involved in searching them out.
Today, the good bullion coins to consider hoarding are the underrated George VI dates in better grade (EF or better), George VI is much more often melted than George V because of the perceived value of George V coins. These can still be found in bullion piles and will have some future demand as Uncirculated supplies run dry of the dates. Most dates in the George VI series fall in this category, but stay away from the ones that are common in Unc (like Denver mint silver, 1944-S and 1946 florins, etc) as these are not likely to have much future demand (as if collectors can buy an Unc one for $30, they aren't going to spend $25 on an EF one).
Last editted by Administrator on 21-Jun-2011 23:05
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